What tools to carry is such a subjective call, I am an experienced rider and I ride in some very remote areas often alone and I don't pack many tools.
I have ridden with guys that carry every conceivable tool that could be needed, they are most often carrying these tools to assist someone else because they are so anal their bike is in flawless condition and impeccably maintained so they never have an issue, these guys are also normally the type that don't venture far away from civilization or black-top and rarely are out of cell phone range.
From experience I know that I am far more likely to crash than break down and that a small first aid kit along with some food and water is far more important than to go overboard on tools (not that you are), I can only carry so much weight so I prioritize what to take.
As far as tools go I carry a tire plug kit with lots of worms in case I get a real good gash which I have, I also carry a small electric tire pump and a very small and light weight hand pump, a Husky folding Torx tool that I picked up at Home Depot for under ten bucks, a pair of needle-nose pliers also some spot ties and a small roll of duct tape, a handheld GPS with spare batteries and my spare plastic emergency key laced into my riding boots.
As you know it best to keep your bike in good repair, prevention is 100 times better than attempting a fix on the side of the road....or worse.
The worst thing that ever happened to me was in the wilderness of central Idaho near Yellow Pine, I was camping and lost the key to my GS and wound up having to hike out more than 10 miles, luckily I had a handheld GPS, the water and food made it bearable as it took a better part of the day to find a ride into town (McCall) and cell phone service.
